Iran has warned that it will strike "nine countries" if the United States hits Iranian military bases or petrochemical facilities again, in one of Tehran's starkest escalation threats since the second round of fighting ended in April. The warning came on October 20 from Mohammad Mokhber, described as an adviser to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, in recorded comments carried by Tasnim, the semi-official news agency close to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
On the same day, Yemen's Houthi rebels claimed they had carried out attacks on Saudi oil and airport targets, and benchmark oil prices hovered near $110 a barrel as crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz fell to less than half their normal level. The region is, in short, one miscalculation away from a third round of direct conflict.
What Iran actually said
Mokhber's remarks were released in recorded form rather than as a formal government statement, but they carry weight because of his position: he served as Iran's interim president after Ebrahim Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash, and he is now described as an adviser to the Supreme Leader.
According to the Tasnim-carried remarks, Mokhber said Iran would strike "nine countries" if Iranian military bases or petrochemical sites were hit again by the United States. He did not name any of the countries.
Coverage of the recorded remarks also quotes Mokhber as saying that Iran's deterrence had prevented the United States and Israel "from using all their capabilities," and as dismissing claims that Europe stayed out of the fighting: "The bases in Britain are in America's hands, and America has bases in most European countries. That's where they got involved [and] fired missiles." Those additional quotes were reported by outlets citing the Tasnim-released recording; the "nine countries" figure itself is the core confirmed claim from the Tasnim report.
The warning did not emerge in a vacuum. On October 18, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Maj. Gen. Mohsen Rezaei, posted on X that "Iran's Armed Forces have prepared a more devastating plan for a new adventure than the 12-day and 40-day wars," adding that any new Iranian operational plan "will not proceed according to the rules they know," according to Tasnim's coverage of the post. And Iran's mission to the United Nations wrote to the Security Council on October 20 — published by Tasnim — asserting Iran's "inherent right to self-defence enshrined in Article 51 of the UN Charter" and warning that "the United States and the Israeli regime will bear full responsibility for the consequences of any further aggression, including the risk of unpredictable and uncontrollable escalation."
Who could the "nine countries" be? (analysis)
Mokhber did not say which countries he meant, so any identification is analysis, not confirmed fact. But there is a telling clue in a warning issued a month earlier.
On September 20, Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters warned that any "mistake" by the United States or its regional allies would bring "continuous, effective and painful strikes" against all US bases and interests in the Middle East, according to a report by Nation Press citing Iranian state media. That warning was explicitly linked to intelligence about a US-convened military meeting in Germany, reportedly attended by commanders from nine countries: the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, and Egypt.
The same report notes that Iran's military command told regional states continuing what it called a "double-standard policy" that they could "no longer expect restraint or forbearance" from Iranian forces.
It would be a stretch to declare these the same nine Mokhber means — he himself added Britain and "most European countries" to the list of places US strikes were launched from, which suggests his count includes states hosting US bases beyond the Gulf. But the September warning shows what Tehran's threat logic looks like: any country that hosts US forces or is seen as enabling a US strike is a candidate target. In practice, that likely means the regional US-base hosts — Qatar (Al Udeid), Bahrain (Fifth Fleet), Kuwait, the UAE, Saudi Arabia — plus Israel, the central US partner in both previous rounds.
Houthi claims of attacks on Saudi oil sites
Hours before Mokhber's remarks circulated, Yemen's Houthis said on Monday they had carried out attacks on Saudi energy, airport, and military targets — including an Aramco facility in Yanbu, the Shaybah oilfield, King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, and Abha airport, according to Reuters.
Crucially, these claims are not independently verified. Reuters said it could not immediately verify the Houthi claims, and the Saudi government has not confirmed any of the strikes. Readers should treat them as claims by one party to the conflict until independent confirmation emerges.
The timing is nonetheless significant. The Houthis are aligned with Iran, and previous rounds of fighting have seen Iran's regional partners act in concert with Tehran. If the strikes are confirmed, they would represent the Houthis opening a second front against Saudi energy infrastructure — the same playbook that rattled markets in 2019, when Houthi-claimed attacks on Abqaiq and Khurais briefly knocked out half of Saudi output.
Oil at $110: the Hormuz numbers behind the price
The market reaction has been swift. Benchmark crude prices hovered near $110 a barrel on October 20, a level that reflects genuine fear of supply disruption, not just rhetoric.
The numbers from the Strait of Hormuz explain why:
- Analytics firm Kpler reports that crude flows through the strait fell to a seven-day average of about 8.5 million barrels per day last week, down from more than 20 million barrels per day the week before — a collapse of more than half.
- Kpler counted at least 10 confirmed incidents involving commercial vessels during the week.
- On Sunday, the IRGC said an oil tanker caught fire and exploded after striking a naval mine in the southern Strait of Hormuz, according to Iranian media. Iran has also touted hitting two tankers that tried to traverse the strait through what it called "unauthorized" routes.
The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint: roughly a fifth of global petroleum liquids normally passes through it, along with a major share of the world's liquefied natural gas. There is no practical alternative route for most of this volume — the Saudi East-West pipeline to the Red Sea and the UAE's Fujairah bypass handle only a fraction. Restrictions on the strait, as our report on the UN's Hormuz food emergency warning detailed last week, threaten food supplies as well as fuel, because grain and fertilizer shipments also depend on Gulf sea lanes.
Energy infrastructure has become a target on both sides of multiple conflicts this year. In Europe, Ukraine resumed long-range strikes on Russian refining capacity — see our earlier report on the Ryazan refinery strikes — and the pattern is repeating in the Gulf: petrochemical and refinery sites named explicitly as triggers and targets.
What Washington is saying
President Donald Trump addressed the conflict while speaking to reporters outside the White House. "We are hitting Iran very hard as you know, economically and militarily," he said. He also praised Russia for staying on the sidelines of the confrontation: "Russia's done nothing there that we can see, and that's very positive."
Trump's comments confirm that economic pressure on Iran — sanctions, and reportedly targeting of Iranian energy revenue streams — continues alongside the military posture. They do not indicate whether new strikes are planned.
The president's handling of overseas conflicts has been uneven in recent weeks — including the growing public rift between Trump and Zelensky over Ukraine war diplomacy — which adds to the uncertainty about how Washington will respond if Tehran follows through on its threats.
The wider picture: two wars, a blocked strait, no off-ramp
To understand why a third round is plausible, the recent history matters:
- The first war (June 2025): a 12-day conflict between Iran and the US-Israeli alliance, ending in a fragile ceasefire.
- The second war (February 28 – early April 2026): roughly 40 days of fighting that began with US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 — strikes in which Iran's previous supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, was killed, after which his son Mojtaba Khamenei was chosen by the Assembly of Experts in March, according to regional reporting.
- The aftermath: the Strait of Hormuz has remained under Iranian-imposed restrictions, commercial shipping has faced repeated incidents, and peace negotiations have stalled. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said recently there is "no chance" of resuming negotiations or reopening the strait unless Washington recognizes Iran's "legitimate" rights, according to Nation Press citing state media.
The IRGC's own framing, carried by PressTV, is that "any new aggression against Iran will trigger a global energy crisis" — the same logic Mokhber's "nine countries" threat is meant to make credible. Meanwhile, hardline voices inside Iran have been calling for the country to weaponize its nuclear enrichment program following the killing of Ali Khamenei, who had prohibited atomic weapons on religious grounds — a development that would radically change the stakes if it materializes.
What happens next: three scenarios
1. New strikes, regional retaliation. If the US resumes bombing and Iran follows through on the "nine countries" warning, the conflict would go regional: US bases across the Gulf, Israeli targets, and energy infrastructure on both sides at risk. Hormuz traffic could effectively stop, pushing oil far beyond $110 and triggering the global energy crisis the IRGC warns about — with food prices following, given the strait's role in grain shipments.
2. Deterrence holds. Both sides may be bluffing at the margin: the US wary of a wider war before midterm elections, Iran wary of a third round of punishment. In that case the standoff continues, Hormuz flows stay depressed around 8.5 million barrels per day, and oil remains elevated near $110 without spiking further.
3. A mediated pause. Regional mediators have been active — Pakistan's army chief was expected in Tehran this week, according to regional reports — and a negotiated de-escalation could reopen the strait and let flows recover. But Qalibaf's stated conditions suggest Tehran will not move without concessions Washington has so far not offered.
What to watch in the coming days: whether the Houthi claims of strikes on Saudi targets are confirmed or denied; whether Tehran names any of the "nine countries"; the next Kpler seven-day flow figures for the strait; and any movement in the stalled negotiations. The Global Spy will continue tracking this story as it develops.