The Great Power Game behind the Transcaucasus Battlefield and the Belt and Road Initiative
In the autumn of 2020, Another war broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan in West Asia, and Major powers including China have expressed their concern and called for a ceasefire.
International and regional powers such as Russia, Turkey, the United States, China, France, and Iran, as well as international organizations such as the European Union and the United Nations, have all called on the conflicting parties to cease the war and resume negotiations as soon as possible.
Recently, the two countries have accused each other of provoking conflicts, and the scale of fighting has exceeded the level that has been escalating in recent years. Both sides used heavy artillery, tanks, missiles, fighter jets and drones. Hundreds of people, including civilians and combatants, have been killed in the conflict.
The Naqqa conflict immediately led to a surge in oil prices in the international crude oil market. Although the two countries may reach an agreement on a ceasefire, they have not fundamentally resolved the main issues of the dispute.
Why is the conflict between these two small countries in the Transcaucasian Mountains so serious and involves the interests of world powers?
Ethnic conflict
Armenia and Azerbaijan are located in the throat of transportation connecting Asia, Europe and the Middle East. This area of the Caucasus Mountains in southeastern Europe is of strategic importance. For centuries, the region has been dominated by different forces including Christians and Muslims.
Both of these countries were once republics of the former Soviet Union. The main population of Armenia believes in Christianity, while the main population of Azerbaijan is Muslim. The two countries competed for the Nagorno-Karabakh region (hereinafter referred to as Naka) as early as the Soviet era.
The Naka region is located in southwestern Azerbaijan, but most of its residents are Armenians. An independent kingdom once appeared in Naka in ancient times, but it has been influenced by neighbouring powers including the Persian Empire and the Turkish Ottoman Empire. In modern times, it was annexed by Tsarist Russia. During the Soviet period, Stalin transferred the Armenian-dominant Naka to Azerbaijan, laying the root of the conflict.
The Naqqa dispute triggered a conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which escalated into war after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The 1994 ceasefire was brokered by major powers. In the 1980s, as tensions between the Soviet republics intensified, Naka (which was an autonomous prefecture at the time) voted to become part of Armenia, triggering the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which escalated into one after the collapse of the Soviet Union. A war until the ceasefire in 1994.
Since then, the Naka region has been part of Azerbaijan, but it has been controlled by separatist Armenians backed by the Armenian government. For decades, the two countries negotiated many times under the mediation of major international powers, but they never concluded a peace treaty.
Great Power Game
As can be seen from the map, there are three land roads for energy transportation and cargo between Europe and Asia: Iran, Russia or Azerbaijan (involving the disputed Naka region). The ancient Silk Road needs to pass through in West Asia. The US "Foreign Policy" bimonthly published an article titled "Why the West Needs Azerbaijan", saying that because the relationship between the West, Moscow and Tehran has been completely destroyed, this leaves only one viable channel for hundreds of billions of dollars in trade. : Through the small Caspian country Azerbaijan.
The Caspian Sea area in the heart of Eurasia is densely covered with major oil and gas pipelines connected to European and international energy markets, and is very close to the Naka region. In addition, the roads, railways, air routes, and ground transportation optical cables in this area have made the world's major powers pay attention to the strategic pattern of this region. During the war in Afghanistan, the US and NATO troops used to take the route of Georgia and Azerbaijan for 1/3 of their fuel and logistics, avoiding dependence on Russia and Pakistan.
The Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that the country's Russian-made Su-25 fighter jets were shot down by Turkish American F16 fighter jets in Armenian airspace. But Turkey denied this statement.
In 1992, the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (the predecessor of the OSCE) established a Minsk group composed of 12 countries, with Russia, the United States and France as co-chairs to mediate the Naqqa conflict. Although Azerbaijan and Armenia reached an agreement on a comprehensive ceasefire under the mediation of major powers in 1994, armed conflicts have occurred from time to time.
Geopolitics and historical feuds complicate the conflict. Neighbouring NATO member Turkey and oil-rich Azerbaijan are both predominantly Muslim countries and share the same cultural origins, and the two countries have close relations. Turkey and Armenia have historical grievances and have no official relationship, so Turkey has always supported Azerbaijan in the Naka conflict.
Russia has formed an alliance with Armenia. There are military bases in Armenia, and there are 5,000 elite troops. They are ready to prevent accidents in this area, although it also has good relations with Azerbaijan.
In the 2020 conflict, the Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the country’s Russian-made Su-25 fighter jets were shot down by Turkish American F16 fighter jets in Armenian airspace. But Turkey denied this statement.
French President Macron also intervened in a high-profile manner, publicly criticizing Turkey for making "belligerent" remarks and "encouraging Azerbaijan to reconquer Naka", calling it irresponsible and dangerous.
Another regional power that borders Iran and Aya are inextricably linked in history. Iran and Turkey have obvious differences on the Naqqa issue. Iran has been directed to send weapons to Armenia, but Iran, which has tried to intervene in mediation, has also denied accusations.
Strategic analysts pointed out that Russia, as the most influential country in the region, will not sit back and watch the conflict in the Naka region, which it regards as its backyard, get out of control. In particular, the Naka issue is related to security issues in southern Russia and may stimulate the southern region of Russia. Ethnic and religious conflicts affect their strategic interests.
Challenges facing the Belt and Road Initiative
As important nodes of the ancient Silk Road in West Asia, Azerbaijan and Armenia are both countries actively responding to China's One Belt One Road initiative and are vying for Chinese investment.
This channel can avoid the other two land roads connecting Europe and Asia in the Middle East and Russia, directly connecting Xinjiang and other places in western China, attracting Beijing's attention. But Beijing's actions here and its expanding influence also keep Russia and other big powers silently watching.
China, Azerbaijan and Armenia have all launched extensive cooperation on the Belt and Road Initiative. In 2015, the international train sent by China went to Baku, Azerbaijan, on a trial run. Before the 2020 epidemic, Beijing, Shenzhen, and Urumqi all opened air routes to Baku. The political and economic relations between the two countries have been developing smoothly. Azerbaijan promotes the docking of its own development strategy and the construction of the One Belt One Road, so as to open up the Caspian Sea international transportation channel that can directly come from China and connect Asia and Europe.
As a landlocked country, Armenia also hopes to change its relatively unfavourable economic environment by opening up Eurasian land transportation, actively promote the "North-South Transportation Corridor" project, and turn its geographical disadvantage into an advantage. The Belt and Road Initiative has rapidly increased the bilateral trade volume between Asia and China from just a few hundred thousand U.S. dollars at the beginning of diplomatic relations to 750 million U.S. dollars in 2019. China has been Armenia's second-largest trading partner for many years, after Armenia's strategic ally Russia.
Markodonov, an expert at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, believes that South Caucasus is not only economically important to China. Beijing has faced the problem of radical jihadistism in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region for many years. Strengthening ties with the Caucasus region adjacent to the Middle East is of great significance to responding to this threat.
Analysts believe that, for Azerbaijan and Armenia, their expectations of China will not be limited to economy and investment.
As far as Beijing is concerned, it will not easily offend anyone involved on the Naqqa issue. When talking about the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said: "China believes that maintaining regional peace and stability is in the interests of all parties, including Armenia and Azerbaijan. We hope that all parties concerned will remain calm and restrained and take measures. To avoid further escalation of the situation and resolve conflicts and differences through political dialogue."